National polls show Joe Biden and Donald Trump are separated by the finest margins as they are locked in a bitter campaign.
Following developments from the US, our experts will be using their specialisms to periodically plot their likely winner on a sliding scale.
Each time, they will be explaining their decision.
Donald Trump’s campaign is quietly confident. The electoral college system means the White House will ultimately turn on a few thousand voters in a handful of states, and, right now, Mr Trump has the polling advantage there.
But Mr Trump’s inner circle is showing none of the hubris of his 2020 bid. They are keenly aware they need to win back moderates, they have a serious cash crisis in comparison to Joe Biden, and the president is enjoying a bounce from a very strong State of the Union performance (in part because the bar was so low).
Respected Republican pollsters believe at this point Mr Trump has a narrow edge, but with his looming trials and eight months still to go, it feels too close to call.
Mr Trump’s primary race was the most successful for a non-incumbent Republican in modern history.
With his party firmly behind him, he must now convince more independently minded voters to back him – or at least those in the seven states that will decide the election.
And the polls look very good for Mr Trump. Across seven key battleground states, he leads in all but one – Pennsylvania. In four of them, his lead is more than five points. These four swing states would not be enough for Mr Trump to win – it would, in fact, lead to a draw if Mr Biden won the other three.
However, Mr Trump’s 3.8-point lead in Michigan is, so far, enough just to cross the electoral college line of 270, swinging the needle in his favour.
Donald Trump is ahead in the national polls and among voters in swing states, whose opinion matters the most. But there are still eight months to go, and the former president has a maze of legal challenges to navigate before the election.
The Super Tuesday results showed us that while Republicans might be willing to support Mr Trump before he takes the stand, they could easily change their mind if he is convicted.
On the other side, Joe Biden is making some progress on rehabilitating his geriatric image but persistent inflation and the war in Gaza are turning core Democrat voters against him for other reasons. The current state of the race is very finely balanced.
Methodology
Our experts are asked to plot their decision on a scale of 100, where 0 is a Joe Biden landslide, 50 is a tie and 100 is a Donald Trump landslide.
Source: The Telegraph
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